VEKTOR · 2026 INVESTMENT THESIS
The 2026 thesis is built on the reality that the era when software alone was enough has ended. Every innovation we care about now requires a physical gate to be cleared. If the gate is not cleared, the trillion dollar AI investment stalls.
We have identified 12 stocks that sit at those physical gates for the 2027 cycle. The full list and sizing logic are available to approved accounts only.
12
BOTTLENECK STOCKS · 2027 CYCLE (INVITATION ONLY)
210
SIMULATED DECISION EVENTS
26
EVENT CATEGORIES
25K
MINIMUM · INVITATION ONLY
2026 PUBLISHED SLEEVE · FIVE GATES · YTD
Equal-weight bottleneck book on the site today
Five stocks at equal weight for 2026. The numbers below are committed static marks (regenerated from public closes when we refresh the file). The 2027 twelve stock mandate is separate and not listed here.
2026 PUBLISHED SLEEVE · YTD
Five stocks at equal weight (20% each, rebalanced at inception). Figures are actual sleeve and position YTD returns from internal investor reporting through . S&P 500 (SPY) benchmark for the same window: -0.61% YTD. Values are published as committed static marks in the codebase (not fetched live on each page load).
+21.18%
Sleeve YTD
-0.61%
S&P 500 (SPY) YTD
+21.79%
Alpha vs SPY
| Ticker | Company | Gate | Weight | YTD | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | Vertiv | The thermal gate | 20% | +82.16% | +16.43% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy | The carbon-free power gate | 20% | -18.90% | -3.78% |
| CAT | Caterpillar | The reshoring gate | 20% | +38.02% | +7.60% |
| GOOGL | Alphabet (Google) | The infrastructure platform gate | 20% | +1.36% | +0.27% |
| AMZN | Amazon | The logistics and compute gate | 20% | +3.28% | +0.66% |
Position YTD and contribution are actual marks as of 2026-04-09. Contribution = weight × position YTD. The chart shows a cumulative path with month-end style progression through the year, ending at these YTD totals (not intraday live).
Where performance is shown for a calendar year or year-to-date period, figures are actual returns for that sleeve and period from internal investor reporting materials—not hypothetical or illustrative scenarios. These materials are for informational discussion only and do not constitute an offering. An offering may be made only by delivery of a confidential offering memorandum to appropriate investors. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
Vertiv
The thermal gate
AI compute density has exceeded the limits of air cooling for dense clusters. Vertiv sits at the transition to liquid cooling and rack level thermal and power architecture, one of the hard gates before hyperscale halls can run at target density.
Constellation Energy
The carbon-free power gate
Hyperscalers are hitting the wall of the public grid. Constellation is among the few operators with existing nuclear scale to anchor firm, carbon-free baseload without a full greenfield thermal construction cycle.
Caterpillar
The reshoring gate
Domestic fabs, battery plants, and heavy industrial reshoring move earth first. Caterpillar remains the industrial capacity gate for the physical buildout when policy points capital at onshore capacity.
Alphabet (Google)
The infrastructure platform gate
The vertically integrated stack from research through cloud is a compute gate in its own right: model depth, TPU/GPU scale, and GCP footprint together set how fast frontier workloads can deploy at institutional size.
Amazon
The logistics and compute gate
AWS is still the foundational layer of much of the cloud economy; Amazon’s logistics engine remains a physical gate for how goods and compute capacity move at national scale.
2025 · VEKTOR CORE · ACTUAL SLEEVE RETURNS
Vektor Core Growth and Vektor Core Safe are actual full-year 2025 sleeve returns from internal investor reporting, with stated weights on public marks.
Full year 2025
+60.8%
S&P 500
+17.9%
Alpha
+42.9 pts
Win / loss names
13W / 3L
Best / worst
APP +320% · YELP -15%
Max drawdown −14% to −18% (April 2025 tariff shock). Recovery roughly 6 to 8 weeks. Sharpe 1.8 to 2.2; Calmar 3.5 to 4.3.
Cumulative return path (monthly marks)
| Ticker | Name | Weight | 2025 | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | Meta Platforms Inc. | 8% | +13.1% | +1.05% |
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | 7% | +320% | +22.40% |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | 7% | +139.2% | +9.74% |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | 6% | +28% | +1.68% |
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA Inc. | 6% | +120.9% | +7.25% |
| DY | Dycom Industries Inc. | 6% | +45% | +2.70% |
| ENS | EnerSys | 6% | +18% | +1.08% |
| EXEL | Exelixis Inc. | 6% | +55% | +3.30% |
| FSLR | First Solar Inc. | 6% | +48.2% | +2.89% |
| HRMY | Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. | 6% | +65% | +3.90% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 6% | +42% | +2.52% |
| PODD | Insulet Corporation | 6% | -10% | -0.60% |
| NBIX | Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. | 6% | -5% | -0.30% |
| RMD | ResMed Inc. | 6% | +25% | +1.50% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings LLC Class A | 6% | +42.8% | +2.57% |
| YELP | Yelp Inc. | 6% | -15% | -0.90% |
Where performance is shown for a calendar year or year-to-date period, figures are actual returns for that sleeve and period from internal investor reporting materials—not hypothetical or illustrative scenarios. These materials are for informational discussion only and do not constitute an offering. An offering may be made only by delivery of a confidential offering memorandum to appropriate investors. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
DECISION MAKERS · 210 EVENT ENGINE · 2026
Simulation is how we time when each physical gate binds.
The same engine that maps documented decision makers (rate setters, regulators, utility and industrial policy) tracks when those actions land through the year. Portfolio construction turns those forward paths into the narrow set of companies that sit at maximum physical constraint, not the broad theme.
The five stock sleeve above is what we publish for 2026. The 2027 twelve stock book, with tighter mandate weights for approved accounts only, is the next map on the same principle.
HOW THE RECORD IS BUILT
Vektor Securities does not start with screens or consensus estimates. It starts with the documented behavior of the people and institutions that move policy, rates, and large-scale capital allocation. The engine covers 210 discrete events across 26 categories; each is modeled before resolution with a specific call, confidence, and invalidation condition.
When those simulations point in a coherent direction, the next step is mapping what must exist in the physical economy for that direction to materialize. The portfolio holds the companies at the point of maximum constraint: the steps where scarcity bites before the rest of the chain can scale.
The five stock 2026 sleeve on this page is an actual equal-weight sleeve: YTD and per-name returns come from internal investor reporting for that period. We publish them as committed static marks in the codebase when we cut a reporting snapshot; they are not fetched live on each page load. SPY is the benchmark over the same calendar window.
The 2025 Vektor Core Growth and Vektor Core Safe sections are actual full-calendar-year sleeve returns from the same materials. Nothing on this page is an offering or a substitute for an offering memorandum.
Approved accounts apply Layer 5 sizing, liquidity, and risk constraints on top of the same bottleneck logic. The five-name sleeve here shows actual returns for that published basket at equal weight; it is not a full description of every client account or sleeve.
A substitute technology or policy path that removes the constraint would force a rebuild of the bottleneck map. For example, a materially different cooling path, or baseload alternatives at scale without the same lead times, could do it. The simulation layer is what surfaces that shift early.
Committee and policy event models are part of how we pressure-test the macro path. The portfolio track record is the economic expression of where those paths point when they converge on physical scarcity.
Where performance is shown for a calendar year or year-to-date period, figures are actual returns for that sleeve and period from internal investor reporting materials—not hypothetical or illustrative scenarios. These materials are for informational discussion only and do not constitute an offering. An offering may be made only by delivery of a confidential offering memorandum to appropriate investors. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.